People are biased towards beliefs that ‘fit well’ with their existing beliefs. In one sense,of course, the tendency to prefer beliefs that fit well with an existing belief system isrational, rather than a bias. But this tendency can also function as a bias. For instance, thereare many people who believe capital punishment deters crime and many who believe itdoesn’t; there are also many who believe that innocent people are frequently convicted andmany who believe that they aren’t. But there are relatively few people who think thatcapital punishment deters crime, that many innocent people are convicted. Likewise,few people think capital punishment fails to deter crime, but few innocent people areconvicted. In other words, people will tend to either adopt both of the factual beliefs thatwould tend to support capital punishment, or adopt both of the factual beliefs that wouldtend to undermine capital punishment. On a similar note, relatively few people believe thatdrug use is extremely harmful to society that laws against drugs are and will remainineffective. Yet, a priori, there’s no reason why those positions (i.e., positions in which areason a particular policy and a reason that policy both have a sound factualbasis) should be less probable than the positions we actually find to be prevalent (i.e.,positions according to which the relevant considerations point in the same direction).
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